Oscar predictions 2015

Oscars this weekend – can’t really be arsed giving it the full treatment this year but FWIW I think Birdman is going to be the big winner.  But as usual I don’t have much confidence.


Best Picture: It’s going to be between Birdman and Boyhood, I think Birdman.


Best Director: Tougher call here.  Boyhood was filmed over 12 years, Birdman looks to be filmed in one continuous shot.  I might as well flip a coin.  There you go, it came up heads so Richard Linklater for Boyhood.  Or not.


Best Actor: Not sure about this one either.  If it was in the UK it would be Eddie Redmayne all the way, but I’m really not sure how well known Stephen Hawking is in the US.  I guess he appeared in The Simpsons and Family Guy and Star Trek so he must be *reasonably* well known … but if you were voting and weren’t familiar with the chap you’d give it to Michael Keaton.  So that might happen.  And then there’s the fawning factor – a lot of movies this year have been quite obviously tailored for Oscar suitability and The Theory of Everything is one of the more in-your-face plays for an award.  If I were a voter I think I’d rebel against that and vote for something else.  Like Michael Keaton.  So that might happen.  Ah balls, let’s go Eddie Redmayne anyway.


Best Actress: I haven’t seen Still Alice yet but everybody says Julianne Moore has it sewn up and I have no reason to argue.


Best Supporting Actor: The closest to a dead cert of any of this year’s runners, JK Simmons will take this for Whiplash, without a doubt.


Best Supporting Actress: Highly likely to be Patricia Arquette for Boyhood.


Cinematography: Has to be Birdman for its one continuous shot, surely.


Original Screenplay: Between Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.  The latter is definitely better, but will it win?  Mmmm, not sure.  Birdman was a bit mad.  Go on, I’ll go Budapest.  But I’ll be checking the results through my fingers.


Adapted Screenplay: Meh.  Imitation Game probably.


Visual Effects: Interstellar I guess.  Personally I’d give it to Planet of the Apes but I don’t think they will.


Animation: I’m not even going to guess this one – the lack of a nomination for The Lego Movie renders it pointless.  And last year Frozen beat Despicable Me 2, which is just plain stupid.  I don’t think the voters actually watch these ones, they just pick the ones they remember their kids watching.  Which means it’ll be the dragonny one.  But that’s not a prediction.  Unless it’s right.  ;)

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